More than a third of people who voted Conservative in the last general election say they would not vote for the party in the next election, according to a poll carried out by Lord Ashcroft.
The former Tory Party deputy chairman's findings revealed around half of the 'defectors' had switched allegiance to the UK Independence Party, with a fifth aligning themselves with Labour or the Lib Dems and a third undecided.
But in a more positive message for the Tories, 56% of those 'defectors' believe David Cameron is the best of the three main party leaders and say their preferred outcome in 2015 would be a Conservative majority.
The poll showed the 'defectors' significantly outweigh the number of new backers from other parties since 2010, making it more difficult for David Cameron to win an overall majority in 2015.
Commentary on the research, Lord Ashcroft said: "This research shows it is far from impossible for the Tories to win outright. But to do so they will need the votes of everyone who supported for them last time, plus practically everyone who is even prepared to think about doing so next time."
The poll found many voters in all camps gave at least a grudging recognition that the coalition had done well in dealing with the economy.
Lord Ashcroft says the Tory party needs a bigger coalition of voters Mr Cameron and George Osborne were more trusted than Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to manage the economy in the country's best interests by a margin of 57% to 43%.
But it would be "hard" to persuade people that they were feeling the benefits of improved growth rates in their own lives given that the Government had no scope for large giveaways.
In fact a small majority 54% said they expected no improvement or a slight worsening in the economy over the next one or two years - with 46% anticipating a significant improvement.
The findings are from Project Blueprint: Phase 4, the latest round of Lord Ashcroft's research into the Tories' prospects of winning the next election outright.
The Tory peer said the Conservatives need to offer a clear direction to win the next election, not simply highlighting Labour's weaknesses and relying on progress achieved since 2010.
"Drawing a contrast with Labour and highlighting progress on welfare, immigration and the macro economy, important though they are, will only take the Tories so far," he said.
"It needs to be clearer what would be on offer under a new Conservative government. It is one thing to say don't turn back, but we also need to know where we're going."
The poll interviewed 8,053 adults online between November 4 and 10.
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