Flood Warnings As River Levels Set To Rise

Homeowners in southern England have been warned to prepare for further flooding today after heavy rainfall caused the River Thames to burst its banks.

The Environment Agency (EA) has warned people living along the lower reaches of the Thames to be aware of the risk of rising water levels.

Further flooding is expected over the weekend in Oxfordshire, West Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Surrey as recent rainfall flows downstream.

There are also risks of flooding along the River Parret in Somerset and the River Severn in the Midlands.

Residents in Dorset, south Wiltshire, Hampshire and West Sussex have also been warned of likely flooding caused by high groundwater levels.

Flooding seen in the village of Muchelney, in Somerset

The EA has issued 94 flood warnings - meaning immediate action is required due to expected flooding - and 151 flood alerts across England.

The agency estimates that some 570 properties have been flooded since the New Year, while a further 239,000 properties have been protected by flood defences.

"Communities along the River Thames, particularly below Oxford, into Berkshire and through Surrey need to remain vigilant for further flooding," said the agency's head of incident management, John Curtin.

"River levels on the Thames are high and will continue to rise for the next few days and we urge people keep up to date with the latest flood warnings and take action.

"With so much standing water around, we would also remind people to stay out of flood water and not attempt to walk or drive through it."

Flood warnings along the River Thames (Pic: Environment Agency)

The Thames burst its banks on Friday, forcing homeowners to carry out clean-up operations and protect their homes from damage.

Parts of the river, stretching from Buscot in Oxfordshire to Bourne End in Buckinghamshire, were under flood warnings as heavy rain over recent days caused river levels to rise.

Residents were warned on Thursday to expect flooding, with many moving belongings to prevent damage.

Many homes close to the banks are underwater, with flood waters causing damage to ground floors and gardens.

Affected areas included Marlow and Cookham in Buckinghamshire, as well as Shiplake and Wargrave in Berkshire and parts of south Oxford.

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PCSO In Custody On Rape And Blackmail Charges

A police community support officer has been charged with rape, blackmail and misconduct in a public office.

More follows...

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Parking Tickets: Five-Minute Grace Period Plan

By Tadhg Enright, Sky News Reporter

A five-minute grace period for motorists who overstay their parking is on a list of proposals being considered by the Government to make parking enforcement fairer.

Many councils say they already allow motorists to stay for a few minutes longer before writing a ticket but it is a grey area which would be cleared up if written into law.

Transport Minister Robert Goodwill said: "The Government is committed to reining in over-zealous parking enforcement and unjust parking practices. It is not fair to motorists and needs to stop.

"We have also recently launched a public consultation proposing a number of changes to make sure local authorities are not short-changing motorists and operate in a fair manner.

"These changes could see the end of CCTV being used for on-street parking, unnecessary yellow lines and the introduction of compulsory 'grace periods' at the end of paid on-street parking."

The proposed changes follow a report by MPs on the Transport Select Committee into problems with parking enforcement that give motorists the perception that fines are imposed simply to raise revenue for local authorities.

Chairperson Louise Ellman MP told Sky News: "People get very concerned when they're paying out penalty charges. Sometimes they think that they were misled and that signs were not clear. 

"And often they believe that those charges are levied for the purpose of raising revenue. It would actually be illegal to do that so councils have to be much more transparent about what money they raise."

The Government is also planning to make signage clearer so motorists do not get confused about local parking enforcement rules.

Councils will have to prepare annual reports in which they reveal how much income they make from parking charges and fines.

They will also be reminded that parking fines are not a "cash cow" and should not be used to raise money for council spending.

Cllr David Simmonds, chair of the Local Government Association, told Sky News: "Local councils receive about £500m a year in income from motorists for parking and penalty charges, all of which is spent on roads and transport. 

"The Treasury received about £45bn a year in taxes from motorists, of which about £10bn goes back into transport, so it's pretty clear that the taxpayer isn't getting as great a deal from central government as they are from local government."

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Record Online Xmas Sales Boost Festive Figures

Increasing use of tablets and smartphones and speedy delivery times are the major factors behind a sharp rise in online shopping before Christmas.

Web sales growth accelerated to 19.2% compared with the same month in 2012 - the fastest rate for more than three years.

However, overall UK retail sales grew by just 0.4% on a like-for-like basis.

The data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) survey carried out by KPMG showed online trade represented 18.6% of total non-food sales in December, up from 16.5% the year before.

BRC director general Helen Dickinson said: "More of us clicked into Christmas than ever before, with online non-food sales growth putting in its best performance since March 2010 and accounting for nearly 20% of spending.

"The surge in the use of tablets and smartphones last year, together with the ever-faster delivery times achieved by an increasing number of retailers, has provided a new spur of growth to online shopping."

David McCorquodale, KPMG head of retail, said: "Whilst store sales continue to flatline, online sales remain the main driver of growth for the sector, contributing nearly three quarters of the uptick in non-food sales in the last quarter of 2013.

"The winners this Christmas were those retailers with slick multichannel operations, who could offer consumers the flexibility to shop how, and when, they wanted to."

In clothing, online purchases represented 21.2% of sales in December, up from 18% in 2012, while furniture and flooring products bought on the internet represented nearly a third of all sales, at 32.4% - though this was down a little on 32.6% last year.

The figure for electrical goods and toys was 14.4%, up from last year's 11.9% but a fall on the 15.5% who shopped online for these goods in November.

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Experts Demand Drastic Cuts In Added Sugar

A group of health experts want to see a significant reduction in the amount of sugar added to food and soft drinks.

They hope that a cut of up to 30% could help the UK's obesity problem.

Action on Sugar – which is modelled on the Consensus Action on Salt and Health (Cash) - wants to help the public avoid products "full of hidden sugars" and encourage manufacturers to reduce the ingredient over time.

Action on Sugar will set targets for the food industry to add less sugar to products over time so that consumers do not notice a taste difference.

The pressure group believes the food industry could achieve a 20% to 30% reduction in the amount of sugar added to products.

Everyday groceries such as bread may contain large amounts of sugar

They say this equates to around 100 calories per day for those who are particularly prone to obesity.

The group says flavoured water, sports drinks, yoghurts, ketchup, ready meals and bread are among the everyday foods that contain large amounts of sugar.

The chairman of Action on Sugar, Graham MacGregor, said: "We must now tackle the obesity epidemic both in the UK and worldwide.

"This is a simple plan which gives a level playing field to the food industry, and must be adopted by the Department of Health to reduce the completely unnecessary and very large amounts of sugar the food and soft drink industry is currently adding to our foods."

Dr Aseem Malhotra, cardiologist and science director of Action on Sugar, said: "Added sugar has no nutritional value whatsoever and causes no feeling of satiety.

"Aside from being a major cause of obesity, there is increasing evidence that added sugar increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome and fatty liver."

Royal College of Physicians registrar Dr Andrew Goddard said: "It is widely acknowledged that sugar is a major factor in both obesity and diabetes, and with many foods, everyday foods such as bread and breakfast cereals, containing high levels of added sugar, it can be difficult for consumers to make healthier choices."

A Department of Health spokeswoman said: "Helping people eat fewer calories, including sugar, is a key part of the Responsibility Deal and our efforts to reduce obesity.

"There are 38 businesses signed up to reduce calories, but we want to go further still, and are discussing this with the food industry."

"As part of the Responsibility Deal calorie reduction pledge, Coca Cola has reduced calories in some of its soft drinks brands by at least 30%, Mars has reduced its single chocolate portions to no more than 250 calories and Tesco has reduced the number of calories sold in its own brand soft drinks by over one billion."

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Third Of Drivers Admit To Nodding Off At Wheel

By Adele Robinson, Sky News Correspondent

Almost a third of drivers admit to "nodding off" behind the wheel, according to a survey.

A poll by road safety charity Brake and insurance company Direct Line has found that nearly half of men (45%) say they have momentarily "head nodded", compared to one in five (22%) of female drivers.

One in fourteen people overall (7%) have actually fallen asleep while driving -  14% of male drivers and just 2% of female drivers.

Also, 49% of the 1,000 drivers surveyed said they had driven after less than five hours of sleep.

Men (55%) were also more likely than women (45%) to drive after less than five hours sleep.

Vicki Radford's husband died after falling asleep at the wheel

Vicki Radford's husband Andrew, from Shrewsbury in Shropshire, died after falling asleep at the wheel in 2008, just minutes from home.

Mrs Radford said: "Before he lost consciousness he did actually say to the guy who was treating him, the paramedic, he said 'I was so close to home I thought I would be ok'.

"That's why he didn't stop, if only he had stopped the car and been late home, that would have been much better than not coming home."

Dr Louise Reynor, from the Sleep Research Centre at Loughborough University, says people should not be driving if they are "head nodding".

"You first of all start by taking lots of blinks then you have head nods then eventually you fall asleep and that period can last up to 20 minutes ... that's a very dangerous situation to be in when your head is nodding you're on the verge of going to sleep."

The Sleep Research Centre's Dr Louise Reynor

Brake says studies show that tired driving kills at least 300 people on UK roads every year.

Deputy chief executive of the road safety charity, Julie Townsend, said: "The fact that so many drivers - especially men - have head-nodded at the wheel is horrifying, even more so that many don't recognise this means they have fallen asleep briefly.

"Brake urges all drivers to pledge to get a good night's sleep before driving, take breaks every two hours, and never try to 'plough on' when they're tired, because sleep can ensue so quickly."

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NHS 'Bed Blocking' Reaches Three-Year High

By Adele Robinson, Sky News Correspondent

The number of NHS patients 'bed blocking' has reached its highest level in three years.

Statistics show towards the end of 2013 the amount of "delayed transfers of care" were higher than the same period in 2011 and 2012.

In November last year 4,190 people were stuck in hospital despite being well enough to leave.

The main reasons are delays in patient assessments or after care provisions such as nursing home placements, or care at home packages.

Two new Medically Fit For Discharge wards (MFFD) were opened last year by Sandwell and West Birmingham NHS Trust.

Local GPs make regular visits to the wards which provide 50 extra beds for patients who are waiting for extra after care.

There are delays in after care provisions such as nursing home care

Justine Irish, matron of one of the wards at Rowley Regis Hospital, said: "There is always somebody waiting for an acute bed unfortunately, and one of the soul destroying things for a nurse or a medic, or anybody working in healthcare, is to see patients in accident and emergency waiting for beds.

"The difference this ward makes is that you know you are our top priority and as such we can look at what the problems are with getting you out, why is it that we couldn't get you out sooner, and what can we do to change that."

Frances Farmer, 90, was admitted to the ward on Christmas Eve.

She said: "I was admitted to hospital at the end of last month, and I went home for a few days, then I was brought back into the hospital, into this ward, and I've been here ever since. It's described as, well, when you come in here you're going home."

In November 2013 more than 20% of NHS patients bed blocking were waiting for "non-acute care".

Another 20% were waiting for assessments to be completed by the NHS or social services.

Just under 14% were still there because they, or their families, did not want them to leave.

The number of "acute" patients staying in hospital despite being well enough to leave is increasing.

Ruth Williams, manager of Integrated Care at Rowley Regis Hospital, says patients should not be admitted to hospital as a knee-jerk reaction and the answer to bed blocking lies in better community care.

She said: "We aim to work to something called a care triangle where most of the population are at the bottom of the triangle self-managing and self-caring.

"At the moment we are admitting far too many people who aren't acutely ill at the top of the triangle ... if we can find the solutions in the community with social services for the middle of the triangle we can avoid people getting to the top of the triangle and then needing to be admitted."

:: All this week Sky News will have live coverage examining the crisis in the NHS. Watch 'A Matter Of Life And Death' on Sky channel 501, Virgin Media channel 602, Freeview channel 82 and Freesat channel 202.

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Sheffield: Family Jailed Over 'Slave' Beatings

Three members of a family have been jailed for keeping a vulnerable man as a "slave" and subjecting him to daily beatings.

Ice cream man David Rooke, 44, was sentenced to six-and-a-half years in jail after admitting falsely imprisoning and assaulting 34-year-old Craig Kinsella.

The family had used him like a "punchbag", said the judge at Sheffield Crown Court.

Disturbing CCTV of the family beating Mr Kinsella was shown in court.

The abuse took place over a six-week period between May and July 2013 and the court heard how Mr Kinsella was kept in "grotesque" conditions in a garage, had to use a bucket for a toilet, and scavenged for food in bins.

David Rooke admitted false imprisonment and five counts of ABH

Rooke's wife Donna, 40, was jailed for four months for battery, while their son Jamie, 19, received four-and-a-half years for five counts of actual bodily harm and affray.

"He was just your punchbag, all three of you. If you were in a bad mood you would just go and kick and punch Craig Kinsella," said Judge Kelson.

"It is staggering that this is happening in our society, absolutely staggering. It is almost unbelievable."

Police found Mr Kinsella in a shocking physical state after responding to reports of a man being abused outside the Rooke house on July 6 last year.

David Rooke's son, Jamie, was jailed for more than four years

He had a broken right arm, a fractured rib, extreme bruising to his back and around his kidney, a fractured chin and cuts, as well as lumps and bruises on his head and legs.

Prosecutors said Mr Kinsella was beaten with weapons that included a pick-axe handle and crowbar.

They said he was so scared of the beatings he would work from 7.30am to midnight for no money, cleaning the family's garden and vans.

Mr Kinsella had learning difficulties, and had first worked for the family a number of years ago, receiving £40 a week so he could keep claiming benefits.

Donna Rooke admitted a charge of battery and received four months in jail

David Rooke was also ordered to pay Mr Kinsella £15,000 that police found in his home.

Detective Inspector Vicky Short, who led the investigation, said: "It is hard to understand how any human being could treat an individual in such a grotesque, callous and inhuman manner.

"I am confident that if we had not received that phone call that day last July we would have been investigating a murder."

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Hundreds Of NHS Direct Staff Face Job Losses

Hundreds of people working for NHS Direct, a failed provider to the NHS helpline, have been told they face losing their jobs.

NHS Direct announced in July that it was planning to pull out of its contracts due to severe financial problems.

In October it said it would close after projecting a £26m deficit for this financial year.

Some 200 of its 700 staff have already been told their jobs are safe, as they move to other providers.

Of the remaining 500, many may also escape redundancy, with back office staff most likely to lose their jobs.

A spokeswoman said: "NHS Direct has today written to around 500 employees, including around 140 nurses, giving them formal notice that they are at risk of redundancy at the end of March.

"The final number of redundancies is likely to be less than this, since we are seeking to mitigate as many redundancies as possible by supporting these staff to find alternative employment within the wider NHS.

"At this stage we do not know what the final number of redundancies will be as it is dependent on several factors including the number of 'at risk' staff who obtain suitable alternative employment elsewhere."

The 111 line, which replaced NHS Direct as the number to call for urgent, but non-emergency care, has been riddled with controversy since its inception on April 1 last year.

Patients complained of calls going unanswered, poor advice being given and calls being diverted to the wrong part of the country.

A month after its launch, leading medics warned the "problematic" roll-out of the system had left many patients not knowing where to turn.

An investigation was launched by NHS England after a number of incidents, including three deaths, were linked to the service.

NHS Direct originally won 11 of the 46 contracts across England to provide the 111 service.

Dr Peter Carter, chief executive of the Royal College of Nursing, claimed 158 nursing staff at NHS Direct would lose their jobs.

He said: "This is sad news indeed for the individuals affected, and could to lead to patients seeing their NHS 111 service stretched even further.

"After the dismantling of NHS Direct, we've been left with a fragmented, localised NHS 111 service that offers uncertainty and inconsistency across many parts of the country."

:: All this week Sky News will have live coverage examining the crisis in the NHS. Watch 'A Matter Of Life And Death' on Sky channel 501, Virgin Media channel 602, Freeview channel 82 and Freesat channel 202.

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Obese Pregnant Women 'Putting Strain On NHS'

By Thomas Moore, Health and Science Correspondent

NHS chiefs have ordered the first official survey of older and fatter women giving birth following new evidence that maternity units are under increasing pressure from complex pregnancies.

Figures obtained by Sky News show there has been a boom in pregnant women who are obese or over the age of 40.

Some units reported that the number of obese mums had more than doubled in just two years.

The Royal College of Midwives said the statistics are "astonishing" and warned hospitals must increase the number of staff to cope with the higher risk of serious health problems in the mothers and their babies.

And NHS England revealed it will for the first time monitor the data to ensure women are receiving appropriate care.

Dr Catherine Calderwood, NHS clinical director for maternity, said: "Knowing this data is one of the most important things to improve the outcomes for these women and their babies.

"So we are investing in that with a new audit for the first time."

Dr Catherine Calderwood, NHS clinical director for maternity

Sky News sent a Freedom of Information request to all maternity units in England.

Of the 104 that replied, 67 were able to supply data on obesity between 2010/11 and 2012/13.

On average there was a 12.5% rise in women with a body mass index (BMI) over 30.

But Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Trust reported a rise of 192% and Derby Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust said obesity had risen 177%.

Our survey also shows an upward trend in the number of older mums, with an average 7.5% rise in the number of women aged over 40 over the two years.

Peterborough and Stamford Hospitals NHS Trust has been at the forefront of one of the biggest baby booms in the country.

Our statistics show that the number of obese mums rose by 59% in two years. Women aged over 40 rose by 33%.

Nicky Griffin, maternity ward manager at the hospital, said obese women need additional care.

"It is a consideration you need to make for their safety when they are in labour," she said.

"There is a risk of deep vein thrombosis, clotting in the leg.

"We have to give medication to prevent that because bigger ladies can be less mobile."

Obese women are also more at risk of diabetes, dangerously high blood pressure and having a premature delivery.

Older mums face similar risks.

But the research by Sky News reveals a third of hospitals are failing to collect data on obesity and age.

Louise Silverton, of the Royal College of Midwives, said the data vacuum could compromise care.

"If you don't know who you are caring for, how do you know you are providing the right care?" she said.

"Our concerns are that many units have not done the full assessment for many years and even where they have the trusts are not employing the number of midwives they need for their population."

:: All this week Sky News will have live coverage examining the crisis in the NHS. Watch 'A Matter Of Life And Death' on Sky channel 501, Virgin Media channel 602, Freeview channel 82 and Freesat channel 202.

We also want to hear your experiences of the NHS - the good and the bad - tweet us using the hashtag #NHSlifeanddeath

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Hull 'Explosives' Find: Boy Among Three Held

A 15-year-old boy and two adults have been arrested after suspected explosive substances were found at a house in Hull.

Army bomb disposal experts were called to the terraced council property in Kilnsea Grove, in the east of the city, on Sunday along with scores of police, firefighters and paramedics following a tip-off.

A number of families were evacuated from their homes as a precaution.

The teenager was arrested along with a 49-year-old woman and a 56-year-old man. All three are in police custody.

A Humberside Police spokesman said last night: "Agencies recovered substances from an address on Kilnsea Grove this afternoon, which were taken to a site in Hull to be disposed of safely.

"The substances have been made safe and seized as evidence. No one was injured."

Several police and fire service vehicles were still parked outside the house last night and officers had erected a blue forensics tent on the road in front of the property.

Police said most people in Kilnsea Grove had returned to their homes.

'Substances' were found at the house in Kilnsea Grove in Hull

Earlier, dozens of people living in the area gathered behind the police cordon to watch the Army bomb disposal experts go into the property.

One man said: "I can't believe what descended on us. There's Army, police, ambulances, four-wheel drive ambulances, fire engines. Everything's here.

"They came in the middle of the night after a tip-off about stuff in the house. Then all hell broke loose. I've not seen anything like it."

Detective Inspector Jason Gourley said: "We have arrested three people who are currently assisting us with our enquiries in connection with substances believed to be at a property on Kilnsea Grove.

"We appreciate that many people of Kilnsea Grove would have been inconvenienced when they were asked to evacuate their homes, so we would like to thank them for their patience, whilst we conducted enquiries and made the area safe for them to return.

"The evacuation was necessary in order to ensure every local resident was safe during the investigation, which was our top priority.

"I would like to reassure members of the public that we believe this is an isolated incident and we don't believe this incident is connected to any terrorist organisations."

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NHS 'Unsustainable' Without Extra £1bn Funding

By Thomas Moore, Health and Science Correspondent

More than 20,000 extra GPs, nurses and other NHS staff are needed if the Prime Minister wants his plan for longer surgery opening hours to work, the head of the Royal College of GPs has warned.

In her first major TV interview since taking up the post, Dr Maureen Baker told Sky News that GPs needed an extra £1bn of taxpayers' money to recruit sufficient staff to keep practices open seven days a week.

Without the extra money, the NHS risks becoming unsustainable as GPs and hospitals struggle to cope with the extra demand from patients over the winter months, she said.

"If we were to move to seven days a week we would need 10,000 more GPs.

"We probably need the same number of practice nurses and a proportionate number of support staff.

"We don't think seven days a week is realistic."

Dr Baker took over as head of the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) in November, a month after the Prime Minister declared his intention to get GPs to work more hours.

According to the British Medical Association (BMA), there are just over 40,000 GPs currently working in the UK.

The RCGP wants that figure to rise by a quarter.

In a dire assessment of the current state of GP practices, Dr Baker said family doctors feel "besieged" as they struggle to deal with the influx of patients, particularly in the winter months.

"It is constant demand with very little let-up," she said.

"We know our colleagues are working 11 to 12-hour days, and that is really difficult to do day after day when it is a job you need to be on top form for.

"They are feeling pressurised and besieged and looking for a bit of respite."

She said GPs need more resources, adding: "The consequence (of not having extra resources) will be the winter pressure effect that comes up every year gets longer and longer.

"My fear is the whole of the NHS becomes unsustainable due to the failure to properly invest in general practice."

She also criticised the Government's £500m handout to hospitals to help them cope this winter.

David Cameron wants longer opening hours for GP surgeries

"It wasn't the best use of money. It was a short-term fix, finger-in-the-dyke stuff," she said.

"There is nothing about the use of that money that will stop the same pressures emerging again and again."

In October, the Prime Minister said he would like GP surgeries to open from 8am until 8pm and at weekends to fit in with the lifestyles of working people.

He told Sky News: "Sometimes people using accident and emergency really just need to see a GP.

"But for hard-working people it is often too difficult because you are at work, you can't get an appointment at the time that fits."

A Department of Health spokesperson said: "GPs do a vital job which is why we increased their overall budget last year as part of our protection of NHS funding.

"We have made £50m available to help innovative GPs to extend their services and stay open longer - either on their own or by working with other local practices.

"We have also asked Health Education England to see how we can get 50% of medical students to become GPs."

Some GP surgeries are testing out new ways of working to improve waiting times for appointments.

Under a system devised by the organisation Patient Access, GPs call back patients within an hour of them ringing the surgery.

Within a week of introducing the system GPs at the Phoenix Surgery in Swindon were dealing with 60% of patients over the phone.

The rest were given same-day appointments for a face-to-face consultation.

Dr Peter Swinyard said: "I can deal with two or three patients in the time it used to take me to deal with one.

"I was terrified. You have been working in a certain pattern for 29 years and now you're doing something different.

"But we are providing a better service, a service that patients have a right to expect."

:: All this week Sky News will have live coverage examining the crisis in the NHS. Watch 'A Matter Of Life And Death' on Sky channel 501, Virgin Media channel 602, Freeview channel 82 and Freesat channel 202.

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Tory Peer's Poll Shows Voters Abandoning Party

More than a third of people who voted Conservative in the last general election say they would not vote for the party in the next election, according to a poll carried out by Lord Ashcroft.

The former Tory Party deputy chairman's findings revealed around half of the 'defectors' had switched allegiance to the UK Independence Party, with a fifth aligning themselves with Labour or the Lib Dems and a third undecided.

But in a more positive message for the Tories, 56% of those 'defectors' believe David Cameron is the best of the three main party leaders and say their preferred outcome in 2015 would be a Conservative majority.

The poll showed the 'defectors' significantly outweigh the number of new backers from other parties since 2010, making it more difficult for David Cameron to win an overall majority in 2015.

Commentary on the research, Lord Ashcroft said: "This research shows it is far from impossible for the Tories to win outright. But to do so they will need the votes of everyone who supported for them last time, plus practically everyone who is even prepared to think about doing so next time."

The poll found many voters in all camps gave at least a grudging recognition that the coalition had done well in dealing with the economy.

Lord Ashcroft says the Tory party needs a bigger coalition of voters

Mr Cameron and George Osborne were more trusted than Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to manage the economy in the country's best interests by a margin of 57% to 43%.

But it would be "hard" to persuade people that they were feeling the benefits of improved growth rates in their own lives given that the Government had no scope for large giveaways.

In fact a small majority 54% said they expected no improvement or a slight worsening in the economy over the next one or two years - with 46% anticipating a significant improvement.

The findings are from Project Blueprint: Phase 4, the latest round of Lord Ashcroft's research into the Tories' prospects of winning the next election outright.

The Tory peer said the Conservatives need to offer a clear direction to win the next election, not simply highlighting Labour's weaknesses and relying on progress achieved since 2010.

"Drawing a contrast with Labour and highlighting progress on welfare, immigration and the macro economy, important though they are, will only take the Tories so far," he said.

"It needs to be clearer what would be on offer under a new Conservative government. It is one thing to say don't turn back, but we also need to know where we're going."

The poll interviewed 8,053 adults online between November 4 and 10.

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Cameron's Pledge To Guarantee State Pensions

Voters 'Won't Back Tories' In 2015

Updated: 1:13am UK, Sunday 05 January 2014

More than a third of people who voted Conservative in the last general election say they would not vote for the party in the next election, according to a poll carried out by Lord Ashcroft.

The former Tory Party deputy chairman's findings revealed around half of the 'defectors' had switched allegiance to the UK Independence Party, with a fifth aligning themselves with Labour or the Lib Dems and a third undecided.

But in a more positive message for the Tories, 56% of those 'defectors' believe David Cameron is the best of the three main party leaders and say their preferred outcome in 2015 would be a Conservative majority.

The poll showed the 'defectors' significantly outweigh the number of new backers from other parties since 2010, making it more difficult for David Cameron to win an overall majority in 2015.

Commentary on the research, Lord Ashcroft said: "This research shows it is far from impossible for the Tories to win outright. But to do so they will need the votes of everyone who supported for them last time, plus practically everyone who is even prepared to think about doing so next time."

The poll found many voters in all camps gave at least a grudging recognition that the coalition had done well in dealing with the economy.

Mr Cameron and George Osborne were more trusted than Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to manage the economy in the country's best interests by a margin of 57% to 43%.

But it would be "hard" to persuade people that they were feeling the benefits of improved growth rates in their own lives given that the Government had no scope for large giveaways.

In fact a small majority 54% said they expected no improvement or a slight worsening in the economy over the next one or two years - with 46% anticipating a significant improvement.

The findings are from Project Blueprint: Phase 4, the latest round of Lord Ashcroft's research into the Tories' prospects of winning the next election outright.

The Tory peer said the Conservatives need to offer a clear direction to win the next election, not simply highlighting Labour's weaknesses and relying on progress achieved since 2010.

"Drawing a contrast with Labour and highlighting progress on welfare, immigration and the macro economy, important though they are, will only take the Tories so far," he said.

"It needs to be clearer what would be on offer under a new Conservative government. It is one thing to say don't turn back, but we also need to know where we're going."

The poll interviewed 8,053 adults online between November 4 and 10.

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